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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple script. It commonly serves as a type of apology. We regret we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a direct line: the coach who engineered the biggest turnaround receives the prize. In reality, it creates an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or simply the greatest surprise.

But the latest field is distinctly unique. The pool of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners fading and recent also-rans improving in unison. Under an typical season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in this wild and entertaining season, he's up against several other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the ideal ballot ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been there, he's been capable to create magic from broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost every decision – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the organization with the immense expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this isn't a normal season!

Where his candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an early hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse had the team wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the season in October. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has regressed after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only one place ahead of peers.

Still