A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has has something to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
