Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
